Insurgency: Not Worth It

December is over which means the holiday season is finished which means the annual holiday truce between the AFP and NPA is now off. This might be the final holiday truce since the AFP is no longer inclined to recommend them.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1090200

"Until and unless they abandon armed struggle, we in the AFP are not inclined to recommend any national-level truce with these fork-tongued terrorists led by the likes of (Communist Party of the Philippines founder) Jose Maria Sison and his minions. They all lost contact with reality but enjoy the comforts and perks of a lavish life in the Netherlands," AFP spokesperson, Marine Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo, said in a statement.

Arevalo's statement came as the holiday truce between the government and the communist rebels, which started midnight of Dec. 23, 2019, ends before midnight Tuesday. 

"Never again!" the AFP spokesperson said when asked if there is a need to go on with a similar truce in the future. 

Arevalo noted that during the unilateral ceasefire, government forces had an Army trooper killed and six others were wounded in Labo, Camarines Norte.

Never again?  Really? Where have we heard that before?

2019

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/12/11/AFP-holiday-truce-CPP-NPA-communist-rebels.html

“Because in the past, we are talking about historical records, every time that a ceasefire is being declared, they take advantage,” Arevalo told CNN Philippines’ The Source. 

“They start to recruit, refurbish, regroup, and research. We do not want them to be able to do that and take advantage of the season,” he added.

2018

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/12/05/1874452/afp-holiday-truce-npa-not-worth-it

“We are not inclined to recommend the said SOMO. We see in the past they have not been sincere in any suspension of military operations. They continue with their terroristic, criminal activities, extortion, harassment,” Arevalo said in a press briefing. 

He added: “Experience showed us that it’s not worth it.”

When did the AFP ever learn from experience? They continue to fight the NPA utilising the same tactics for the past 50 years. I do not know when the very first holiday truce was observed between the AFP and the NPA. 2012 is the earliest year I can find a truce on record.

The government and the Communist Party of the Philippines agreed to a 27-day holiday truce from Dec. 20, 2012, to Jan. 15, 2013, to help restart the peace process.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/330413/christmas-in-the-boondocks-barracks

How many times will the peace process be restarted? Even the Office of the Presidential Adviser of the Peace Process (OPAPP) says the peace process is a non starter because of the CASER agreement.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1090521

The Philippines’ sovereignty would be put at a disadvantage if the government gives its nod to the communist movement’s “flawed” Comprehensive Agreement on Social Economic Reforms (CASER), Presidential Peace Adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. said on Friday.  

Galvez said there is no need for CASER, as it would only benefit the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) since the proposed deal is “irrelevant” and simply a “copycat of the programs” of the communist insurgents. 

“CASER is based on an obsolete framework and is no longer relevant since it is largely based on the pre-industrialization and pre-globalization era. It is a formula for the surrender of the national government’s integrity, as well as the state’s sovereignty,” he said in a press statement. 

“The CASER insists that the Philippine government surrenders its sovereignty and tramples on its own integrity by forcing upon the state outmoded and erroneous concepts that were conceived more than half a century ago,” Galvez added. 

Galvez made the remarks, as Communist Party of the Philippines founder Jose Maria Sison sought the passage of the proposed CASER as a precondition for the possible revival of talks between the national government and the CPP’s political wing, the National Democratic Front (NDF).

CASER is the Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reforms. Writing about this in 2018 I noted:

This document is 173 pages of broad and general calls for reform in industry, culture, agriculture, and other areas of the government and Philippine life. The one thing lacking is there are no methods of implementing these reforms. There is nothing exact. It's as vague as the term "social and economic reform." 

Also to be noted is that right in the introduction, written by Joma Sisson, is the claim that the Duterte administration is not sincere when it comes to real social and economic reforms. 

If Duterte does not think the CPP is sincere and if Sisson thinks Duterte is not sincere then what good are talks going to accomplish?

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2018/05/martial-law-backchannel-talks.html

These reforms are impossible to be implemented and if Joma Sison wants CASER to be implemented as a precondition for peace talks then peace talks are dead in the water. Why does the government  care about Joma anyway when he has been deemed irrelevant?

https://pia.gov.ph/news/articles/1031532

National Intelligence Coordinating Agency Regional Director Ariel Perlado emphasized the effectiveness of LPEs, adding that these make the founder of Communist Party Jose Maria Sison irrelevant. 

“In the local level we have already made interventions through the Regional Task Force,” he said.

If LPEs (localised peace engagements) are making progress in the war against the NPA then why involve Joma at all? 

http://tempo.com.ph/2019/12/08/joma-wont-be-arrested-if-he-returns-for-peace-talks/

Communist leader Jose Maria Sison will not be arrested if he agrees to resume the peace talks with the government in the country, Malacañang said yesterday. 

According to presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo, the government is prepared to suspend any pending arrest warrant against Sison and other local communist group officials who will take part in the peace negotiations.

Why would the government suspend his arrest warrant? Why even try to talk with the CPP? After 50 years the government should know by now that peace talks are worthless. Best to kill them all.  Better yet bribe them via E-CLIP.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1090287

"Returning to the fold of the law is still the better option for members of the New People’s Army (NPA) and Militia ng Bayan (MB) members rather than living in the mountains and fighting against more heavily equipped and better-trained government forces," Defense Undersecretary and Task Force Balik Loob (TFBL) chairperson Reynaldo Mapagu said in a statement. 

“If the NPA and MB members surface now, they are guaranteed to preserve their lives, and at the same time, can be reunited with their families,” Mapagu said. 

"They can also enroll in the E-CLIP and avail of its benefits, which are not only for them but for their family members as well,” Mapagu added. 

Benefits under the E-CLIP include cash assistance, education, livelihood training, housing, and employment assistance, as well as loan processing for business capital.

You know what I think? I think the AFP is lazy. Bribing terrorists to surrender is simply too easy. Much easier then fighting them in the jungles and much easier than building a legal case against their supporters. Remember last October when several people were arrested in Bacolod for providing material support and weapons to the NPA?  Six of the cases have been dismissed.

http://www.visayandailystar.com/2020/January/07/topstory3.htm

The judge, in his joint resolution, said government authorities in custody of the accused are directed to immediately release them as they have been languishing in detention since Oct. 31, 2019 unless they are held for some other lawful causes.  

Sayson said as early as Nov. 11, 2019 he issued an order giving the Bacolod City Prosecutor’s Office 10 days until Nov. 22 to submit the records of the applications for search warrants, affidavits of witnesses and the transcript of stenographic notes with searching questions and answers.  

The trial court prosecutor requested for a 30-day extension until December 18 which the court granted, Sayson said.  

The judge, on January 3, said 64 days later the prosecutor has failed to comply with the order of the court and confirmed non-compliance of the search warrant applicant.  

Thus he finds insufficient probable cause to issue a commitment order against all “inquested” accused for violation of RA 10591, the judge said. 

The government had 64 days and they could not even present a proper case against these people.  The judge dismissed the case without prejudice which means they can refile but why couldn't they present all the evidence in the timeframe of 64 days?  Complete incompetence. The prosecutors should be fired just like Lt. Col. Napoleon Pabon was sacked for releasing the doctored photograph of rebel surrenderees.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1211458/army-officer-sacked-for-releasing-doctored-image-of-communist-rebels

An Army officer has been sacked for releasing a manipulated photo of alleged former communist rebels in Masbate town last December. 

Lt. Col. Napoleon Pabon, commanding officer of the 2nd Infantry Battalion of the 9th Infantry Division, was relieved of his post effective Jan. 7, Philippine Army spokesperson Lt. Col. Ramon Zagala said in a statement Friday. 

Pabon was said to have “admitted the mistake and took responsibility for the outcome of the photo manipulation.” 

Zagala said the Army is now reviewing its policies to institute necessary changes that will ensure that such mistakes will not happen again.

One might think the Army wants to make sure doctored photos are not released again. If you look at the fine print what it seems they really mean is to not release such obviously doctored photographs to the public.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1207338/ano-pnp-afp-to-be-more-cautious-in-releasing-photos-amid-manipulated-photo-incident

“The PNP and AFP commands have ordered its units to be more circumspect in releasing photos and information to the public and are already taking appropriate measures to ensure that such lapses will not happen again,” said Año in a statement. 

“Huwag nating bigyan ng dahilan ang mga kaaway ng estado na hanapan ng butas ang magandang programa natin para sa ating mga kababayan (Let’s not allow enemies of state to find lapses in the program for rebel returnees),” Año said.

Are the PNP and AFP interested in telling the truth to the public or are they covering up "lapses in the program for rebel returnees?" One solon wants to audit the E-CLIP program and find out just what is happening. After all millions are being spent to bribe NPA soldiers to surrender.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/12/29/gabriela-solon-wants-house-probe-on-governments-rebel-returnee-program/

“The government allocates millions of funds to E-CLIP each year and not a single audit or review has been made regarding its implementation,” she said in a statement, even as she scored the manipulated photo of alleged former rebels released by the Philippine Army. 

According to her, the E-CLIP, which has been allocated an additional P106.1 million as part of the DILG’s 2020 budget next year, has become “a fake rebel-and-firearms for-cash raket” by “corrupt” military officials and their cohorts from the local government units (LGUs). 

This year, the program has a funding of P260.4 million, she noted. 

“Each rebel returnee supposedly receives up to P165,000, including the maximum amount for firearms remuneration of P100,000 under the E-CLIP. But who determines if the rebel is fake or not? We fear that the program has become a milking cow for corrupt military men and partner LGUs as the total tally of rebel returnees is far higher than the estimated number of communist rebels,” she added. 

Brosas said the DILG and AFP should explain to Congress the supposed alleged irregularities in the implementation of E-CLIP. 

(They were telling us, there were 306 who surrendered this Holiday season on top of the hundreds who allegedly surrendered this year. Why is it that the number of those who surrendered is bigger than the actual number of rebels? The AFP and the DILG must explain to Congress this irregularity.) 

She recalled that exactly a year ago, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana declared that there were around 8,000 rebels who surrendered to the government. 

“But the government keeps on saying that Communist rebels are down to just 4,000,” Brosas said.

Last year I pointed out this very fact that the number of surrenderees and alleged rebels do not add up. The solution I posed to this problem is that the NPA is combing the number of NPA supporters with actual NPA fighters to boost the figures. Whatever the real answer is it would do good to have the E-CLIP program audited. If the AFP has nothing to hide then they should welcome such a probe and not be calling those who wish to hold them accountable "enemies of the state."